China's auto market will continue to grow steadily this year

Recently, relevant experts from the Ministry of Commerce, the Development Research Center of the State Council and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers have stated on different occasions that with the stabilization of macro-control policies in the second half of the year, and the stability of holiday factors and automobile prices, the auto market will continue to grow steadily throughout the year.
Supply exceeds demand will gradually increase In terms of total supply, the supply of the domestic auto market is roughly "domestic output + imports + last year's ending stocks." According to the statistical analysis of the passenger car market by Dr. Wang Qing of the Development Research Center of the State Council, the total supply of the passenger car market in the first half of the year was about 2 million vehicles, while the total domestic demand was 1.763 million, and the difference between supply and demand was about 24%. 10,000 cars. Coupled with the hidden inventory at the dealership, the difference between supply and demand may be even greater.
According to the analysis, even though some manufacturers reduced their production in June, the average monthly growth rate of passenger car production in January-June was still 33.2%, an increase of nearly 1/3 over the same period of last year. However, on the other hand, the year-on-year increase in sales of passenger vehicles has been decreasing month by month, with an average monthly increase of 28.2%, which is much lower than the average growth rate of production. Therefore, the exacerbation of the oversupply situation in the second half of the year is inevitable.
People concerned in the Ministry of Commerce believe that the current drop in sales in the market is only a drop in growth rate. From the aspect of circulation, car sales in the first half of the year still have a large increase.
The decrease in sales volume growth is inevitable. The analysis concludes that the main factors causing the current decline in the auto market are the following:
First, the overall price level of passenger vehicles has fallen sharply in May, increasing the risk of consumer purchases and further strengthening consumer expectations for car prices. As a result, the price elasticity of demand has been reduced correspondingly in the short term, leading to a fall in the auto market. Price reduction - Hold-to-buy - Reduced price promotion - Strengthen the cycle of holding money for purchase.
Second, consumers expect that the continued fall in import quotas and tariffs at the beginning of next year will cause the prices of imported vehicles to drop sharply and suppress the domestic-car market, resulting in a full-scale price fall.
Third, under the circumstance that car prices remain high for a long time, the sharp price cuts in 2003 and in the first quarter of this year caused demand to be released rapidly in the short term, and this normal decline has now occurred.
Fourth, the gradual emergence of auto consumption costs and the tightening of auto personal loans have inhibited consumption in the short term, constraining the rapid growth of consumer demand.
Extending price-declining models to high-priced models There are signs that from the beginning of the year, all price-reduction models are basically concentrated on models with less than 150,000 yuan, and then gradually extended to high-priced models. By March, the price reduction models were mainly concentrated on models with a price range of 100,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan, and by June they had begun to extend to 300,000 yuan models. The focus of competition in the automotive market is a sign of shifting to higher-priced models.
In September, as the market demand conditions improve, it is expected that the average annual growth rate of passenger vehicle production in the second half of the year will reach 30%-35%, with a year-on-year increase of 33%, and cumulative production of passenger vehicles will reach 4.1 million vehicles. -4.2 million vehicles.
Among them, the year-on-year increase of 35% in the number of cars, and the cumulative output reached 2.65 million -2.8 million, more than 201.89 million last year. However, according to a report from the Ministry of Commerce, China’s total automobile production in 2004 is expected to reach 5 million, an increase of about 13%, including 2.4 million cars, an increase of about 16%.
In the second half of the year, prices dropped by about 3%. Overall, because manufacturers have accumulated certain experience in price reduction activities since 2003, they have a certain understanding of the actual effects of price reductions in the second half of the year, and their price behavior will tend to be rational in the second half of the year. Therefore, it is unlikely that there will be large-scale, high-frequency price cuts, and it is expected to decline by about 3% in the second quarter price level.
In the second half of the year, the sales of automobiles will rebound. The Research Institute of Market Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council predicts that sales in the second half of this year will show a steady upward trend, with a 30% growth rate throughout the year, and total passenger vehicle sales will also reach 3.9 million -4.05 million vehicles, of which the sedan grew by 33%, and total sales reached 2.55 million - 2.65 million. The analysis shows that in the second half of the year, the passenger car market sales will rebound from the second quarter.
Xu Changming, deputy director of the Information Resources Development Department of the National Information Center, believes that although the current growth in the production and sales of automobiles has slowed down, the prospects for auto demand are still promising. In particular, the continuous economic growth has enabled a considerable number of households to have consumption potential. He predicted that the total demand for Chinese cars in 2005 will reach 5.9 million, surpassing Japan to become the world's second-largest automobile consumer country; the total car demand in 2010 will reach 8.7 million.