Jia Xinguang: Energy shortages may curb production and sales of the automotive industry

Recently, there have been "three shortages" in China: coal shortages, electricity shortages, and oil shortages. In fact, coal, electricity, and oil cannot keep up with demand. Some of them have attributed the formation of the “three shortages” to the rapid development of high-energy-consuming industries such as steel, real estate, and automobiles. In any case, the emergence of the "three wastes" is indeed a serious warning to the ambitious auto industry. Before the mid-1990s, the auto industry was constrained by bottlenecks such as raw materials, energy, and funds. With the starvation market in sight, the emergence of the “three wastes” has allowed the automotive industry to re-memorize the era of resource shortage.

It is worth noting that the "three shortages" are not short-term problems. According to the “National Electricity Market Analysis Report” released by the National Grid Corporation’s electricity market analysis and forecasting group, the overall power supply and demand situation in 2004 will be more severe than in 2003. By 2005, the nation’s electricity supply and demand situation may start with tension. To ease the basic balance of electricity supply and demand throughout the country in 2006. (This prediction may still be very optimistic!) Many local governments predict that the “electricity shortage” will also occur in the next few years.

On the surface, the lack of power supply, rapid economic development, the rapid expansion of high-power-consumption industries and persistent high-temperature and drought are the main factors that cause China's lack of electricity this year. However, it is precisely the energy system problem that is actually exposed by the “three wastes”. China's energy industry is undergoing a difficult transition from a planned economy to a market economy. The coexistence and wrestling of the two economic models has made it difficult for China's energy chains to have problems. For example, the price of electric coal, the problem of inter-provincial power barriers, the monopoly of the petroleum and petrochemical industries, and the coal transportation and sales of the Shanxi Provincial General Logistics Corporation are still the subject of unified agency. Due to the existence of such deep-seated problems, we cannot expect energy problems. Resolved in the short term.

Then, the "three shortages" will have a major impact on the development of the auto industry and the auto market. First of all, the phenomenon of “opening three stops and four stops” will reappear, so that the production arrangement will have no alternative but to dismantle the power supply bureau, and the entire production plan will be completely disrupted; secondly, “three shortages” will bring energy prices. Rising, rising energy prices have not only increased the cost of auto production itself, but also increased the prices of the upstream industries of the auto industry, such as steel, non-ferrous metallurgy, and parts and components. This has made companies accustomed to attacking the market with price cuts to make every effort. There is room for manoeuvre. In fact, the price increase for steel has long since appeared. The automaker shifts this burden to suppliers. This is possible in the short term, but it cannot be maintained in the long term. Third, the rise in oil prices is a measure of private car consumption. Nightmare, because the cost of keeping a car was high, and now it is fueling fire, which may lead to a decline in car sales or at least a slowdown.

Looking at the current situation, the huge planning of the 10 million automobile industry may be choked by the energy crisis. At the same time, local governments are now enthusiastic about the development of heavy chemical industry, making the demand for energy rapidly increase. The development of the automobile industry must pay attention to this issue.




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