The market supply exceeds demand, the price decline trend is obvious, experts remind --- fertilizer industry should take measures to avoid risks
2021-03-29 14:37:37
Although the prices of the domestic fertilizer market generally showed an upward trend in the first quarter of this year, the second quarter remained stable, and the ex-factory price of production enterprises did not change much. However, the fertilizer market will show a situation of oversupply in the second half of the year. The price drop is almost an inevitable trend. Therefore, the fertilizer industry Measures should be taken to avoid risks. This is the information that the reporter obtained at the National Chemical Fertilizer Price Information Seminar held by the Yunnan Provincial Chemical Industry Association recently.
In the first half of this year, due to rising prices of electricity, steel equipment, and transportation, the production costs of fertilizer companies increased, and companies had to adjust fertilizer prices to the high point of national policy restrictions in accordance with market demand, thus promoting the rise in market prices; Farmers were affected by last year's high prices and the lack of money to buy chemical fertilizers. Buying fertilizers and storing fertilizers ahead of schedule also drove up market prices. Therefore, in the first half of the year, the national fertilizer market showed a trend of balance between supply and demand, rising prices, and booming production and sales. According to relevant statistics, in the first half of the year, the country’s fertilizer production (refinement) totaled 26.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, an increase of 3.8% from the same period of last year. Of which nitrogen fertilizer production 18.892 million tons, an increase of 12.6%; urea output 10.71 million tons, an increase of 11.8%.
In terms of prices, the domestic fertilizer market prices generally showed a rising trend in the first quarter. Taking urea as an example, the ex-factory price of most manufacturing enterprises in January was around 1,600 yuan (t price, the same below), and rose to around 1,800 yuan in mid-March. In the second quarter, some of the province's fertilizer products entered the target market one after another. Therefore, the saturation of the market has played a role in stabilizing the market to a certain extent. As a result, prices in northern China have generally risen, and the southern region has remained flat or slightly higher. By mid-June, prices in the fertilizer market have declined slightly in the southern region with the use of the fertilizer season, while prices in the northern region have fallen sharply. In the second half of the year, the fertilizer market in China has shown a situation where supply exceeds demand. Experts predict that price decline has become an inevitable trend, but the rate of decline is still difficult to estimate.
The main factors affecting the price trend of the fertilizer market in the second half of the year are as follows: First, the newly increased plant capacity in 2005 will increase the production of urea by about 1 million tons; Second, the end of the busy season with fertilizer, the amount of fertilizer used in agriculture will decrease; third, the country will promote soil testing and formula fertilization this year. With an area of ​​280 million mu, radiation will bring about 650 million mu of arable land, which means that more than 7.8 million tons of nitrogen fertilizer will be reduced.
Experts believe that in the next two years, China's fertilizer production is still in a period of rapid development. Some of the main products of urea under construction will be put into operation one after another. The fertilizer market may present a situation of oversupply. According to incomplete statistics, it is expected that the new urea production capacity will be 5.76 million tons in 2006, and 80 million tons will be added in 2008. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's plan, China's final soil testing and fertilizer application will account for half of the country's total cultivated land area (ie, 900 million mu), and the annual reduction in nitrogen fertilizer use will be over 11 million tons.
To this end, experts suggest that, as the competition in the domestic fertilizer market intensifies, the production companies must continue to strengthen the adjustment of product structure, use basic fertilizers such as DAP and MAP, and NPK compound fertilizer as the main products, and do a good job of the production capacity of existing devices. Development; Phosphorus-producing phosphate fertilizer compound fertilizer expansion and transformation of enterprises to do a good scientific argument, the development of the scale, the total amount should be strictly controlled; temporarily not develop TSP, NP and other phase-out products, to be eliminated through market competition and administrative intervention Lots of equipment with small scale, backward technology, poor efficiency, and serious pollution. The second is to do a good job of optimizing resource allocation and continue to implement the policy of “combination of minerals and fertilizers†and “salt and fertilizer†to control the current trend of over-investment and blindly expanding the scale, prevent low-level redundant construction, and continue to do a good job in early warning of the phosphate fertilizer industry. jobs. The third is to deepen the restructuring and restructuring of enterprises, establish large-scale enterprise groups, increase industrial concentration and international competitiveness, accelerate the adjustment and reorganization of corporate capital structure, product structure and organizational structure, and support the integration of production factors according to the industrial chain to achieve complementary advantages and resources. Sharing, improve the international competitiveness of China's fertilizer industry. The fourth is to accelerate technological progress, develop new varieties of fertilizers, improve technological innovation capabilities, achieve product and technology upgrading, and enhance product competitiveness; continue to do a good job in the introduction of technology, equipment, digestion, absorption, innovation and localization, play a completed The production capacity of the device. Fifth, we must adhere to the concept of scientific development and the concept of circular economy, take the path of sustainable development, implement clean production, create “environmentally friendly†companies, and achieve coordinated and sustainable development in all aspects of economy, society, environment and resources.
In the first half of this year, due to rising prices of electricity, steel equipment, and transportation, the production costs of fertilizer companies increased, and companies had to adjust fertilizer prices to the high point of national policy restrictions in accordance with market demand, thus promoting the rise in market prices; Farmers were affected by last year's high prices and the lack of money to buy chemical fertilizers. Buying fertilizers and storing fertilizers ahead of schedule also drove up market prices. Therefore, in the first half of the year, the national fertilizer market showed a trend of balance between supply and demand, rising prices, and booming production and sales. According to relevant statistics, in the first half of the year, the country’s fertilizer production (refinement) totaled 26.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, an increase of 3.8% from the same period of last year. Of which nitrogen fertilizer production 18.892 million tons, an increase of 12.6%; urea output 10.71 million tons, an increase of 11.8%.
In terms of prices, the domestic fertilizer market prices generally showed a rising trend in the first quarter. Taking urea as an example, the ex-factory price of most manufacturing enterprises in January was around 1,600 yuan (t price, the same below), and rose to around 1,800 yuan in mid-March. In the second quarter, some of the province's fertilizer products entered the target market one after another. Therefore, the saturation of the market has played a role in stabilizing the market to a certain extent. As a result, prices in northern China have generally risen, and the southern region has remained flat or slightly higher. By mid-June, prices in the fertilizer market have declined slightly in the southern region with the use of the fertilizer season, while prices in the northern region have fallen sharply. In the second half of the year, the fertilizer market in China has shown a situation where supply exceeds demand. Experts predict that price decline has become an inevitable trend, but the rate of decline is still difficult to estimate.
The main factors affecting the price trend of the fertilizer market in the second half of the year are as follows: First, the newly increased plant capacity in 2005 will increase the production of urea by about 1 million tons; Second, the end of the busy season with fertilizer, the amount of fertilizer used in agriculture will decrease; third, the country will promote soil testing and formula fertilization this year. With an area of ​​280 million mu, radiation will bring about 650 million mu of arable land, which means that more than 7.8 million tons of nitrogen fertilizer will be reduced.
Experts believe that in the next two years, China's fertilizer production is still in a period of rapid development. Some of the main products of urea under construction will be put into operation one after another. The fertilizer market may present a situation of oversupply. According to incomplete statistics, it is expected that the new urea production capacity will be 5.76 million tons in 2006, and 80 million tons will be added in 2008. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's plan, China's final soil testing and fertilizer application will account for half of the country's total cultivated land area (ie, 900 million mu), and the annual reduction in nitrogen fertilizer use will be over 11 million tons.
To this end, experts suggest that, as the competition in the domestic fertilizer market intensifies, the production companies must continue to strengthen the adjustment of product structure, use basic fertilizers such as DAP and MAP, and NPK compound fertilizer as the main products, and do a good job of the production capacity of existing devices. Development; Phosphorus-producing phosphate fertilizer compound fertilizer expansion and transformation of enterprises to do a good scientific argument, the development of the scale, the total amount should be strictly controlled; temporarily not develop TSP, NP and other phase-out products, to be eliminated through market competition and administrative intervention Lots of equipment with small scale, backward technology, poor efficiency, and serious pollution. The second is to do a good job of optimizing resource allocation and continue to implement the policy of “combination of minerals and fertilizers†and “salt and fertilizer†to control the current trend of over-investment and blindly expanding the scale, prevent low-level redundant construction, and continue to do a good job in early warning of the phosphate fertilizer industry. jobs. The third is to deepen the restructuring and restructuring of enterprises, establish large-scale enterprise groups, increase industrial concentration and international competitiveness, accelerate the adjustment and reorganization of corporate capital structure, product structure and organizational structure, and support the integration of production factors according to the industrial chain to achieve complementary advantages and resources. Sharing, improve the international competitiveness of China's fertilizer industry. The fourth is to accelerate technological progress, develop new varieties of fertilizers, improve technological innovation capabilities, achieve product and technology upgrading, and enhance product competitiveness; continue to do a good job in the introduction of technology, equipment, digestion, absorption, innovation and localization, play a completed The production capacity of the device. Fifth, we must adhere to the concept of scientific development and the concept of circular economy, take the path of sustainable development, implement clean production, create “environmentally friendly†companies, and achieve coordinated and sustainable development in all aspects of economy, society, environment and resources.
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