Total vehicle sales continue to decline in the market

Compared with the highly marketized markets in Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, China Automotive has entered the initial stage of the automobile popularization stage since 2011. The fluctuation of vehicle sales is inevitable. However, after experiencing consecutive double-digit growth, it is difficult for Chinese cars to accept the slowdown in growth.

The statistics released by the China Automobile Association show that from January to May 2011, China’s auto production and sales amounted to 7,777,700 units and 7,791,200 units, an increase of 3.19% and 4.06% year-on-year, which is far below the industry’s previous forecast of 10% for the full year. 15% increase. Among them, negative growth occurred in April and May.

Affected by the overall macroeconomic and political situation, China's entire auto market is expected to continue to be in the doldrums. The volatility of the market has formed a direct collision with the government’s clear-cut position on purchase. Previously implemented exits including purchase tax cuts, car outbound education, and trade-in incentives have indicated that the government has implemented the phased plan to boost the development of the automobile market during the special period (financial crisis), and then launched a shake-out for Beijing as a demonstration city. The purchase restriction policy shows that the government has concerns about a series of social problems that may be brought about by the overheated development of the auto market.

Now, stakeholders have started to have fierce disputes over the government’s current policies on the automobile market. The core issue is whether the auto restriction policies still being implemented should be cancelled in time and other follow-up policies that hinder the development of the auto market. Is it necessary to continue the introduction? In particular, the NDRC's application for cancellation of car purchase restrictions was even more heated.

From June 28th to July 4th, 2011, the Auto Research Institute of the newspaper and Gasgoo.com initiated investigations on this, and involved 2,774 people in the industry.

According to a survey by the telescopic government, 72% of people believe that the current overall decline in the Chinese auto market is a normal market performance, and only 22% of them expressly oppose this.

The survey results showed that 61% of the people did not accept the call for government administrative measures to intervene in the downturn in the auto market; 25% of the people were hopeful that the market had no shortage of government bailouts with frequent administrative interventions. "The move has a strong dependence; 14% of people are ambivalent about this, and think that it is not easy to call for government intervention."

In Europe, the United States, Japan, and South Korea, vehicle sales have shown a downward trend, especially in Japan and the United States. The weakness in vehicle sales in these markets is directly related to the economic situation. In China, what causes negative growth in the market is that all parties have different views, but the purchase restriction policy has been criticized. Survey shows that 72% of people believe that the current overall decline in the Chinese auto market is a normal market performance, and only 22% of the people expressly oppose this.

In fact, from 2009 to the end of 2010, China’s auto market saw rapid growth under the stimulation of purchase tax reductions, autos going to the countryside, and old-fashioned three favorable policies, including 1.6 liters and below. The sales volume of small-displacement passenger vehicles is the highest. At that time, we had conducted a survey on whether or not the auto consumption stimulus policy should be withdrawn. At that time, we concluded that based on domestic inflationary pressures and other factors, we must ensure that the economy will continue to grow steadily in the future, and that economic stimulus policies such as autos will not exit in time if the market does not The growth momentum is likely to be exhausted in just a few years.

Now, the market has experienced a sharp decline. In addition to the rising cost of car use caused by the rising cost of car use in consumers, and the fact that the Japanese earthquake has caused some companies to have limited supply chain capacity, the biggest impact factor is The exit of the above stimulus policy and the auto market were largely overdrawn in advance in the previous two years. Although the current purchase restriction policy has a certain negative impact on the auto market, it cannot turn a blind eye to the normal decline in the auto market after the return of the “policy market”.

When the purchase was restricted, sales of self-owned brands in the Beijing market fell sharply in 2011, and some people directly linked it to the purchase restriction, ignoring the impact of the end of purchase tax cuts and premature advancement of consumption.

In the course of this investigation, it was reported that an internal meeting led by the State Council led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the China Automobile Association had been held several days ago. The main thrust of the meeting is that in order to offset the impact of purchase restrictions, the government will have a new automobile consumption promotion policy announced in the near future.

It will take time for the parties to see if this matter has been achieved. But this once again raises questions for the Chinese auto market. How the restriction policies affect the development of the Chinese auto market. In the survey, 54% of the respondents believe that the current cancellation of the purchase restriction policy will bring about a certain boost to the auto market, but it is not obvious. Even 11% of people think that the cancellation will have no positive effect on the decline of the auto market, and it has almost no effect. In contrast, 30% of the people are happy to see that the cancellation of the purchase restriction policy will have a significant stimulatory effect on the auto market and lead the entire market to recover.

Judging from the sales situation since the implementation of the Beijing Auto Restriction Purchase Policy, the self-owned brand with low price competition has suffered the most. In 2011, the sales volume of self-owned brands in the Beijing market fell by nearly 70% compared to the same period of last year, and some people naturally took the purchase with restrictions. The policy is directly linked to the neglect of the end of the purchase tax reduction and the advance of the consumption overdraft to the Beijing auto market. The survey results showed that 42% of the people held negative positions and 46% of them held positions of approval.

Considering a variety of factors, it is unlikely that Beijing will cancel this purchase restriction policy. Except for the market level, for Beijing where the number of motor vehicles is close to 5 million and it is dubbed the “first block”, Beijing has already been shut down. Imminent. More importantly, the implementation of the policy of restricting purchases in Beijing can indicate that the government’s position in the current environment and tight energy pressure is also a barometer for the country: it will not sacrifice environmental and energy security due to over-consideration of economic growth. Wait for the price.