Drought in Yunnan or caused by imbalance of supply and demand of domestic rubber
Under the influence of continuous large-scale drought in Yunnan, the current status of production in related industries has begun to attract investors' attention. Rubber is no exception.
According to public information, natural rubber trees have certain requirements for the growth environment and climatic conditions. Only when there is sufficient water can the rubber be successfully produced. As the main natural rubber producing area in Yunnan, drought will reduce the amount of natural rubber and affect the supply. Many people worry.
In this case, Li Jianan, a research fellow of the China Investment Advisor Chemical Industry Group, analyzed in an interview that the drastic change in the drought situation in Yunnan will affect the supply of domestic natural rubber and boost domestic natural rubber. From the perspective of the futures trend, the rally is more obvious. According to the data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the opening price of natural rubber futures was 25,370 yuan/ton on January 4, 2012, but by February 17, the closing price rose to 27,860 yuan / ton, an increase of about 10%. However, Hainan Rubber also believes that since the main producing areas of natural rubber are in Southeast Asia, if the affected origin is only Yunnan, it may cause the industry to fluctuate, but “will not move to the bottomâ€, Hainan Rubber Co., Ltd. "Say.
Industry-wide profit decline
According to a series of data released by China Rubber Net on February 20, according to statistics on tires, tires, and other industries, the current total industrial output value in 2011 was approximately 312.2 billion yuan, an increase of 16.97% year-on-year, but the industry realized a profit of approximately 9.8 billion yuan. , a year-on-year decrease of 9.03%. It is worth noting that the above report also stated that among the 341 key enterprises (excluding auxiliaries and skeletons), 50 had losses and the loss was 14.66%.
In addition, the above report also holds that in 2011, the price of natural rubber required by the industry soared at the beginning of the year and continued to see new highs. After operating at a high level for a period of time, cliff-type fluctuations occurred again. Affected by the price of natural rubber, the main synthetic rubber Prices first followed up, and then they fluctuate dramatically. The large fluctuations in the prices of these bulk raw materials required by the industry have made it more difficult for the industry to control costs, which has led to a decline in the operating efficiency of the industry.
In addition, according to the China Rubber Industry Association's statistics on key member companies, the industry's profit fell 9.03% over the previous year, the amount of losses increased by 100.12% over the previous year, the loss reached 14.66%, an increase of 4.69 percentage points over the previous year. In the specific segment industry, the profit of the tire industry fell by 16.19% compared with the previous year, the loss amount increased by 92.25% compared with the previous year, and the loss reached 25.58%, an increase of 6.98 percentage points from the previous year.
Li Jianan, researcher of China Investment Advisor Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. believes that China's natural rubber is mainly planted in three major regions: Hainan, Yunnan and Guangdong, of which Hainan has the largest total natural rubber production, accounting for about 60% of the country's total natural rubber output; Yunnan is the second, natural The total output of rubber accounts for about 35% of the country's total output of natural rubber. By mid-March, rubber in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan and other places will enter the rubber tapping period, and the rubber tree can successfully tap rubber must have sufficient moisture. If the continuous drought will affect the normal tapping in Yunnan, resulting in the reduction of natural rubber production in Yunnan, If the drought situation is difficult to change, the supply of domestic natural rubber is bound to be affected, thus promoting the rise of domestic natural rubber.
However, this reporter called the rubber industry listed company in Hainan rubber consulting related circumstances, the other party believes that the main production area of ​​natural rubber is located in Southeast Asia, Yunnan, a limited production of the industry's impact on the industry.
Industry or change opportunities
Public information shows that since 2002 China's natural rubber consumption has exceeded the United States, ranking first in the world. Under the huge consumption, analysts worry that the drought in Yunnan will become the opportunity to break the previous relationship between domestic supply and demand for rubber.
Li Jianan analyzed that the supply and demand conditions are the basic factors affecting the price of natural rubber. The decrease in the output of natural rubber has a higher possibility of causing price increases. “Because the development of the tire industry in China is slowing down, the demand for natural rubber is still strong. The self-sufficiency rate of China's natural rubber is seriously insufficient, and it needs a lot of imports every year. If the domestic natural rubber production decreases, the import of natural The demand for rubber will increase further. By then, foreign natural rubber suppliers and domestic natural rubber traders will use this to raise the price of natural rubber," said Li Jianan.
In addition, due to the increase in the price of raw materials, the cost pressures of related industries follow suit. According to public information, although domestic rubber prices have fallen at a high level due to delays in Thailand's purchase and storage plans and domestic demand has not yet started, the increase in natural rubber prices has not diminished, according to data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Li Jianan predicted that the company’s cost control and inventory risks brought about by the large fluctuations in raw material prices will rewrite the industry structure to some extent. In 2011, due to the large fluctuations in rubber prices, some enterprises with weak cost control ability are increasingly difficult to manage, and they may face the risk of withdrawing from the market in the future. Some enterprises with stronger cost control ability will be further enlarged and strengthened.
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