Rainstorm is ruthless: agriculture and animal husbandry in the southern region has a greater impact

Although 6000 “net red pigs” have been rescued, more pig farms are still facing the flood test. This farm in Anhui is the embodiment of this year's floods affecting agriculture and animal husbandry in the southern region.

For a long time, the southern region is the main producing area of ​​rice, rapeseed and sugarcane in China, and it is also an important area for pig and freshwater fish farming. This flood disaster has had a great impact on the agriculture and animal husbandry in the southern region.

Rainstorm is ruthless: agriculture and animal husbandry in the southern region has a greater impact

The "Daily Economic News" reporter learned in an interview that the recent floods caused a temporary shortage of pork and vegetables, causing a slight increase in prices. Some insiders believe that the self-adjustment of the pig industry will make the negative impact of the flood will not continue, and the impact of the flood in the south will gradually be diluted.

The retailer's pig farm is under pressure. “A large number of droughts and a flood line. The pig farms along the Yangtze River basin will be affected by the floods.” Feng Yonghui, an analyst of the China Livestock Early Warning Network, who is investigating in Poyang Lake, Jiangxi Province, The News reporter said that the China Animal Husbandry Association pig industry branch is collecting data on the disaster situation of the pig farm. It is still unclear about the specific disaster situation. At present, the pig farms in the cities along the Yangtze River are more seriously affected.

“Small-scale pig farms are less affected by floods, and retail pig farms are seriously affected.” Zhang Lili, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information Agriculture, said that due to the good site selection of large-scale pig farms and systematic disaster prevention experience, floods occurred. There are also emergency measures afterwards, so it is not affected by the floods, but most small-scale retailers will suffer heavy losses.

It is worth mentioning that the proportion of large-scale pig farms and retail pig farms in China is quite large. According to the data provided by Zhang Lili, if the scale of pig farms is more than 300 heads per year, the proportion of large-scale pig farms will reach 70%; if more than 6000 heads are more recognized in the industry, the scale will be scaled up. In pig farms, the proportion of scale is less than 50%. Therefore, according to this proportion, the disaster situation of retail pig farms is more common and serious.

Feng Yonghui believes that there are not many pigs that actually drown and kill in the flood. The big threat to the pig industry comes from the disaster. Because the swine epidemic is closely related to fecal urine, the spread of bacterial contaminants after flooding will greatly increase the chance of outbreaks of infectious diseases in pigs.

There are currently 1192 counties affected by the disaster in the country.

Did the floods boost the price of pigs? Feng Yonghui said that the pig price has fallen for more than a month, and has started to rebound slightly in recent days. The flood has affected the pig price to some extent. Taking Wuhan as an example, as a transportation hub between the north and the south, the traffic was not smooth due to flooding, which in turn affected the transportation of meat and vegetables, which pushed up the price of meat and vegetables in a short time.

Zhang Lili believes that the floods mainly affected the transportation of pigs, which led to slaughter enterprises receiving fewer pigs, which in turn caused the pig price to rise. However, the transportation of pigs on the farms also encountered obstacles, so it would be “two short supply and demand”. In the situation, the pig price will not fluctuate significantly. The pig price has risen to the end, the pig price will fall back and will stabilize. “In the short term, floods have an impact on pig prices, but in the long run there is little impact.”

There are also different opinions on the market outlook for pig prices. "In the short term, the flood demand in the south will lead to a decline in market demand, and the market price will not be affected by the supply level in the short term." Zhang Cheng, an agricultural analyst who won the investment, believes that the flood will still be irritating to the market outlook, and the supply side will be affected by the disaster. Expanded, so bullish after the market.

Zhang Lili believes that the probability of an outbreak after the flood is small. On the one hand, the overall affected area of ​​the farm may not be so large; on the other hand, large-scale pig-raising enterprises have comprehensive disaster prevention measures, post-disaster prevention measures, and scale. The pig farm will have corresponding insurance.

According to the information of the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Office, as of July 3, 1192 counties (autonomous regions and municipalities) have suffered floods in the country, with a population of 32.82 million and a direct economic loss of about 50.6 billion yuan.

According to the People's Daily report, as of 10:00 on July 7th statistics: since June 27, Anhui Province has a total of 80.06 million people affected by the disaster, 21 people died due to disasters, 3 people were missing, and 685,000 people were resettled and resettled, including centralized resettlement. 77,000 people, 679 centralized resettlement sites. The affected area of ​​crops was 657.2 thousand hectares (9.858 million mu), 25,623 houses were collapsed, 36,131 houses were seriously damaged, and 82,242 houses were damaged. The direct economic loss was 21.64 billion yuan, of which the agricultural loss was 8.07 billion yuan.

(Original title: The agricultural and animal husbandry in the south has been affected by heavy rain in Anhui Province, and the agricultural losses in Anhui have reached 8.07 billion)