Manufacturing industry is the backbone of China's economy
Can only the service industry support the economic growth of a big country?
In 2015, the proportion of China's service industry in gdp accounted for half of the total for the first time, which was 10% higher than that of industry. I think this is caused by the so-called three-phase superposition.
The first is the objective law of China's economic growth.
All countries’ economic growth must go through such a process. After the industrialization of a successful economy has reached its peak, its employment has reached 30% of all employment, and China has already reached 2010. Since then, employment has begun to decline. Developed countries have gone through this process, including South Korea, Japan, etc. This is the so-called inverted u-shaped curve of industrialization. Without this process, the country will surely fall into the middle income trap.
The second is the changes in the world.
In the ten years before the economic crisis of 2008, as China and India joined the globalization, the globalization of this round of more than a decade is unprecedented, and the economic growth of the entire world is very fast. The United States is the engine of demand. China is producing engines. The two engines are added together to open up the horsepower. In the end, the United States has a problem and the world must readjust it. This adjustment was actually deeper than the 1973 oil crisis adjustment. From this perspective, it is not difficult to understand why China’s exports have fallen so fast, and in 2015 it was negative growth.
The third is the short-term fluctuation of China's macro economy.
Since 1992, China has been rising and falling alternately every seven years. From 1992 to 1997, the growth rate was rapid; after 1997, it entered deflation; after the end of 2003, it began to grow again after 2004; after 2010, it entered deflation again. Judging from this pattern, it will probably bottom out in 2017. This is the self-regulation of economic operation. The prices of bulk commodities in the world are also every 7 years.
The three phases are stacked together, making the proportion of consumption in the GDP increase, and the proportion of investment declines. In terms of production, the proportion of the service industry has increased, and the proportion of the manufacturing industry has declined.
What I want to emphasize is that the increase in the proportion of service industries is a natural process. However, do not think that only the service industry can support the economic growth of a big country, nor should it be that the service industry is glorious and tall and the manufacturing industry is backward. In this regard, Dong Mingzhu's sentence is particularly appropriate: "Ma Yun left me can not live, I left Ma to live." After all, the service industry is to serve what, especially the high-end service industry, depends on the manufacturing industry.
Is it difficult to survive without Internet?
Many entrepreneurs now suffer from Internet anxiety disorder and are disheartened. Although "Internet +" is hot, it is not difficult to survive without Internet. On the contrary, it must be done in a down-to-earth manner.
The Internet giants should think about how to serve the real economy. The entities of the real economy must also think about whether their nature is suitable for selling on the Internet. When companies consider surfing the Internet, they must think about the profit model and the value they create for society.
The Internet has changed our lives, but we have no shortage of "+Internet". Germany's industry 4.0 is to put everything in the cloud, personality production, flexible production. This is also based on the fact that the entire German society is very stable and everyone has the ability to pursue individual needs. However, China’s demand has not developed to that point, and the people are basically still in the stage of mass consumption.
The German model can be called the follow-up mode, and continuous innovation and improvement can be made on the basis of existing technologies.
For example, German company Merck owns 70% of the world's LCD market, which occupies an absolute monopoly position in the market. In 1970, the Japanese began to make LCD screens on electronic toys. Merck believes that there are applications that may begin to use LCDs, and that they will continue to update and do better. Progressing bit by bit and continuing to dominate the market, they are now starting to do oled. The technology is mature, the particles are slim, and they can be made into any shape.
What about China's manufacturing industry?
From a manufacturing perspective, China's manufacturing industry is doing a better job. We have to compare with countries with the same level of income, but not with the United States. The United States has been in the post-industrial era and has been leading us for a full half century. I think we are more reasonable today than Japan was in the early 1970s. This will reveal that Japan’s innovation in the electronics industry in the 1970s was unparalleled, but I feel that China is confident that it can do better than Japan. First, our growth rate will exceed that of Japan; secondly, our capital market will develop better than Japan. The capital market in Japan is very bad. In the 1980s, the Japanese stock market skyrocketed. In the early 1990s, it crashed, and then it did not rise again. China not only has a stock market, but other direct financing channels such as PE and vc have also developed. These will all promote China's innovation.
Many problems in China are problems in the development process. If there is a problem in China, what about other developing countries? Therefore, I am not worried that China cannot successfully cross the middle income trap.
Anti-Covid 19 products including: Face Mask used in hosipital,or industrial eara.,protect face from the dust,water and bacteria. ,Povidone iodine used in cutaneous antisepsis,in the disinfect of medical equipment, ward, clothing and equipment, sanitary ware, tableware, food sanitation, swimming pool, natural water etc. Hydrogen Peroxide used to make oxidant, bleaching agents, cleaning agent and so on.
Anti-COVID 19 Product,Health Protection Product,Disinfector
Yucheng Jinhe Industrial Co.,Ltd , https://www.hncarbonblack.com