A wave of unresolved policy will dominate the price of corn

A wave of unresolved policy will dominate the price of corn

First, the spot market

Northeast Producing Area: Jilin's early stoppage affects the backward flow, and the policy grain release policy dominates the price

According to the news, Jilin directly under the library on the 25th to stop the purchase of corn in advance, considering that after the Spring Festival, Jilin has been the main province of the acquisition of corn, the market believes that Jilin stopped or affect the overall purchase increase in Northeast China, and is not conducive to North China corn Backflow speed and grain source consumption, but the acquisition of the reservoir is nearing completion, and the bank collection point is gradually increasing. The actual impact of the stoppage is expected to be limited. The domestic corn market is shifting from the acquisition period of the reserve to the policy grain release cycle. Considering that the surplus grain in the northeast region has basically bottomed out, local trade and reverse trade in North China are in vain, policy grain will be heavily stationed in the northeast, and the inventory policy will become the dominant future corn. The factor of price movement. Special reminder, pay attention to the press conference on the food circulation on the 26th and the inspection of the northeast sowing period of the China Corn Network in May.

North China spot: price increases are reluctant to sell at the grassroots level, and arrivals are insufficient to help the market continue

Last week, the price of corn in North China increased rapidly. The deep processing enterprises generally rose by 40-80 yuan/ton during the week, driving the grassroots prices to follow the rebound. Henan, Hebei, and Shanxi were boosted, and the price of the grassroots level gradually bottomed out. The bottoming process in the early stage was basically completed. In addition, the price of rotating corn also rose, and the export price in Shandong rose to 1720-1740 yuan / ton. During the weekend, corporate price increases have gradually slowed down. Under the influence of the acquisition and expansion of the temporary reserve, the number of corn backflow in North China increased, and the consumption rate of surplus grain increased. In addition, the price hikes of the enterprises caused the farmers to reluctantly sell, and the amount of enterprises decreased, which pushed the price of this round to continue.

Southern sales area: North China drives most regions to increase prices, and rotation of grain suppresses China's offer

The corn price surged and the rebound of grain prices in North China, the overall spot purchase and sales in the southern sales area fluctuated upward. Among them, the rising market is mainly reflected in the southwest region where the regional supply is relatively passive and the eastern China and South China with the supply of grain source in North China as the main force. However, the central China region is inhibited by the increase of grain inflow in North China, and the spot price continues to be weak. Last Friday, Sichuan Zhongliang Grain invited bidding, the market feedback was very small, the site price was reduced by 30 yuan / ton, the transaction is still not satisfactory, to the Qinglongchang station poultry feed price 1800-1840 yuan / ton, pig material 1900-1940 yuan / Ton.

North and South ports: Beigang continues to stop, import and rotation of grain to curb Southport prices

The northern port trade continued to stop and the temporary storage entered the stoppage phase. It is expected that the corn trade purchase and sales of the port will continue to be light. Inventories in the southern ports are low, which supports the price of corn. However, imports still arrive and the stocks are abundant. The price of the rotating food of 1860-1900 yuan/ton is superior, and the price of the port is restrained.

Feed farming: low-key stocking before the holiday, stimulate the price of chickens when filling the bar

The market for downstream products lasted last week, and the low-profile stocking of the stocks before the May Day, especially the stimulation of chickens is still relatively insufficient and the price of chickens facing respiratory diseases continues to rise, and the current better patch nodes also stimulate the price of chicks. All the way strong, rebound again nearly 4 yuan / feather. Of course, the power of the market, the resonance of live pigs, the expansion of poultry, and the resumption of aquatic products have caused the spot price of soybean meal to skyrocket, with weekly increases of 140-260 yuan/ton.

Deep processing: the price increase of raw materials drives the recovery of the price of North China starch, and the increase in inventory is accelerated.

Last week, the price of starch increased steadily. In the northeast region, the price of raw materials remained stable and the starch was not adjusted. The price of starch in North China rebounded. On the one hand, due to the rapid increase of raw corn, the effect on starch price was better. The starch in North China generally rose by 100-150 yuan/ton during the week. On the other hand, the price of starch in the previous period was lower than that in North China. Large, is a recovery upwards. At present, the overall recovery of downstream demand is not obvious, but the price increase of products has caused panic-stricken goods in some areas, and the downstream goods have accelerated, and the company's starch inventory has decreased.

Second, short-term market forecast

From the expansion of the temporary storage to the stoppage of Jilin, the corn market is shifting from a strong acquisition of the temporary reserve to a policy grain release cycle. The temporary storage stoppage will inevitably affect the grain price and consumption rhythm of North China. The reluctance of farmers to sell will improve, and the support for the purchase of corn in North China will be weakened. However, based on the shortage of grassroots surplus grain, the shortage of grain sources and the demand for replenishment of some enterprises, it is expected that the price of grain in North China will not fall in the short term. In the later period, we will pay attention to the impact of policy grain placement on the market and the guidance of policy grain placement on market food prices.