Tire industry needs to enhance the sense of crisis in the auto market slowdown in 2012

The latest “2011-2015 China Tire Industry Investment Analysis and Prospects Forecast Report” revised by China Investment Advisor in July 2011 has been optimistic that in the coming years, China’s tire industry will have great investment value, but this The premise of optimistic forecast is based on the fiery auto market in previous years. Today, when the growth rate of cars in 2011 is less than 3%, the tire industry is undoubtedly facing a great crisis.

Demand for domestic demand and foreign demand fell, making the tire industry "winter"

In fact, as early as 2011, with the prices of natural rubber and tires rising and falling, when talking about the tire industry at the end of the year, the word most used by the company’s CEOs is “tangled”. If one word is added, then It is "squeaky," and it also leaves many people sighing at the end of the year that "it has finally come." The CEOs of the major tire industries also expressed their concern about the 2012 industry situation.

This kind of concern is based on the conclusions drawn from both domestic and external demand. Domestic demand and the “three carriages” that drive the domestic economy are unlikely to have big bright spots. The 4 trillion yuan investment ending project and emerging industries will have a relatively limited pull on the tire market. The growth rate of the automotive industry in 2011 was less than 3%, and the growth rate in 2012 is expected to be 6% to 8%, which is relatively weak. Overall, the outlook for tire sales in 2012 will be even more difficult than in 2011.

Zhang Wanyou, deputy manager of Shuangqin Group Co., Ltd., said: “In 2012, it may be even more difficult than in 2011. The situation is more complicated. Each company either reduces the operating rate or pressures the inventory. It turned out to be painful. It may be long-term pain now, within 2 to 3 years. It may be more difficult.” This worry is undoubtedly caused by the icy auto market. Ni Jie, General Manager of Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber Co., Ltd. expressed the same concern. He pointed out: “2011 is a very tangled year, and 2012 will be a very challenging year. The growth rate of auto production and sales at home and abroad are decreasing. However, the demand for tires did not increase much, but production capacity increased sharply, because the tire industry, driven by investment of 4 trillion yuan, made a lot of money in 2009, which stimulated investment enthusiasm. At that time, many projects that were launched will be put into production in 2012. Now we We have already felt the pressure of excess steel tyres, and production cuts have not brought down the overall inventory of the industry. In terms of semi-steel tyres, the new projects on Dawangzhuang’s side, with an annual output of 5 million, are considered small and large. It is said that the annual production capacity will reach 20 million. If all these projects are put into production, there will be surplus in the world."

The surplus of production capacity is not only caused by the reduction of domestic demand, but also the reduction in external demand. Fan Rende, president of the China Rubber Industry Association, said that the international situation in 2012 was more severe than in 2011, and the export barrier may be even more. The debt crisis in Europe has intensified. The problems of economic stagnation in the European Union can be solved overnight. The degree of economic recovery in the United States and Japan is not as expected and will affect China's tire exports.

Fu Xiangdong, deputy general manager of Guangzhou Huanan Rubber Tyre Co., Ltd., also believes that with the increase in the competitiveness of China's tires, foreign anti-dumping and intellectual property cases have begun to increase, the US tire recall system, the EU REACH (chemicals registration, evaluation, licensing With the increase in export thresholds for regulations and other regulations, and the reduction in demand for subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the main target for exports, the increase in tire exports may decline. In addition, the cost of hydropower, raw materials, and labor rises, and the national monetary policy is tight. The cost advantage of China's tire industry is gradually disappearing. A large number of new projects and capacity expansion projects have led to a significant increase in the total domestic production capacity, and there is a possibility that the production capacity will be greatly exceeded. Therefore, the growth rate of the domestic tire industry will be reduced. Although the EU labelling law that came into effect in November 2012 does not clearly specify what level is not allowed to enter, EU consumers have always been more rational. After the labeling law is implemented, how large is the change in its market consumption, and the type of consumption will not change? Should pay attention. Moreover, there was no severe weather in Europe in 2011. However, European dealers have accumulated a large number of winter tires in the second and third quarters. How much money is being used, and how much impact it will have on future sales is still unclear. Coupled with the slowdown in the growth rate of emerging economies and the devaluation of currencies such as Brazil and South Africa, it is an indisputable fact that the export market is not optimistic.