Equipment manufacturing industry has not yet emerged from downward pressure

At the turn of the new year and the old year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Report on China's Industrial Economic Operation 2012” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) jointly made by the Operation Monitoring Coordination Bureau and the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. In addition to the above predictions, the "Report" also provides a comprehensive summary of the industrial economy in the past year. According to official forecasts, the equipment manufacturing industry in 2013 is still not optimistic, but the overall performance will be better than last year.

Slow and steady 2012

According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, during the period from January to November 2012, the industrial added value of industries above designated size increased by 10% year-on-year, of which, the growth rate was 11.6% in the first quarter, 9.5% in the second quarter, and 9.1% in the third quarter, and the growth rate was close to 10 in the fourth quarter. %. In terms of light and heavy industries, light industry increased by 10.2%, heavy industry increased by 9.8%.

In response, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Academy of Social Sciences pointed out: "It is expected that the industrial added value of industries above designated size will increase by about 10% over the previous year." This forecast is much lower than in the past few years. For example, in 2011, the added value of industries above designated size in China increased by 13.9% from the previous year, and 15.7% in 2010. Even in 2009, which had just experienced an economic crisis, there was also 11%.

In spite of this, when reviewing the operation of China's industrial economy in 2012, the Report still lists a number of highlights, including a marked increase in the pull of domestic demand, a steady advancement in the adjustment of industrial structure, an improvement in the operating conditions of enterprises, and a good trend in the eastern region. The central and western regions have increased their pulling power; the effects of steady growth policies have gradually emerged; and the growth rate of industrial electricity consumption has apparently rebounded.

Indeed, the continuous improvement of the leading indicators indicates that the manufacturing industry is in the process of stabilizing and recovering. According to a survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index has declined for three consecutive months since September after falling for four consecutive months, reaching 50.6% in November, and the new orders index for sub-indicators has risen. To 51.2%.

It is precisely because of this that the "Report" uses "slow and steady" to summarize the overall trend of the industrial economy operation last year. At the same time, it has not avoided difficulties and deficiencies, and admits that "stabilizing the foundation is still not stable."

These difficulties include: The shrinking external demand can hardly be reversed in the short term, and the export situation of industrial products is grim. With the overall growth in fixed asset investment growth, the cumulative growth rate of industrial investment has continued to decline for five consecutive months, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment has also continued. After four months of decline, there has been no significant improvement in market demand growth, production costs have remained high, corporate profits have continued to decrease, and losses have increased.

The prospects for the equipment industry are not optimistic

In the process of stabilization of the industrial economy as a whole, the difficulties faced by the equipment manufacturing industry are more difficult to see in terms of sub-sectors. Compared with the rebound in the growth of industrial production of raw materials, the stabilization of the consumer goods industry, and the apparent steady state of the electronics manufacturing industry, the equipment industry has not yet emerged from downward pressure due to its long production cycle and difficult adjustment.

According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2012, the value-added of equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.2% year-on-year, which was significantly lower than that of all industries above designated size, and the growth rate dropped by 7.2% compared with the same period of last year.

Moreover, due to the slowdown in market demand, the number of new orders for the equipment manufacturing industry has shrunk significantly. From the perspective of the China International Machine Co., Ltd.'s key contacts with corporate orders, the cumulative number of new orders signed in 2011 increased by only 6% year-on-year, while the cumulative growth in 2012 has shown a negative growth situation, among which the orders for construction machinery, ships, machine tools, trucks, and Power Generation equipment declined the most. .

The “Mechatronics” reporter noticed that as early as last year’s first half year report on the operation of China’s industrial economy in 2012, it had already focused on the above issues and described the equipment manufacturing industry at the time as an “unprecedented downturn”. Economic performance.

Looking at the development prospects for 2013, the "Report" believes that the equipment industry "opportunities and challenges coexist and the outlook is still not optimistic", but it is also expected that "the overall operation of the equipment industry will be better than this year, and the growth rate of added value will be higher than this year."

On the one hand, 2013 is a crucial year for the deep implementation of industrial transformation and upgrading plans and strategic emerging industries development plans. High-end equipment manufacturing industry will usher in an important period of development opportunities. At the same time, the acceleration of investments in infrastructure such as railways and water conservancy will stimulate the growth of construction machinery and other industries. There will be room for growth in UHV power transmission and transformation equipment in hydropower equipment and power transmission and transformation equipment in power generation equipment.

On the other hand, the improvement in demand is not yet obvious, and the export situation is unlikely to be fundamentally improved. At the same time, China’s equipment manufacturing industry faces problems such as overcapacity of low-to-medium-end products, weak research and development capabilities of high-end products, and weak industrialization capabilities, leading to homogenous competition in the industry. Further aggravating, the United States and other advanced economies in the implementation of the re-industrialization strategy will also export me mechanical and electrical products will form a certain degree of pressure.

In addition, the "Report" also predicts that "(the next year) the automotive industry will maintain a slight increase ... ... new energy vehicles are expected to become a new growth point, but the entire automotive industry development is facing resource and environmental constraints."