Analysis of Machine Tool Industry Trends in 2013

Big but not strong, big but not refined, big without profit, this is the biggest problem facing China's manufacturing industry. The industrial system of the machine tool industry, which has been referred to as the “parent machine” of manufacturing, is also facing the reality of “big but not strong”. To be strong, it has become a hurdle that China's machine tool industry cannot avoid and must go through. Transformation and upgrading are the trend of the times.

I. Industry Review in 2012

2012 industry economic operation characteristics

In 2012, China's machine tool industry continued the downward trend that began in the second half of 2011. The growth rate continued to decline slowly and the domestic market was in a downturn. By the end of September, the international market continued to show a slow recovery to varying degrees. The demand for domestically produced low-end products has been significantly reduced, and imports have been operating at high levels. In the fierce market competition, the contradiction between the product structure and the market demand has become more prominent, and the export of China's machine tools and tools has emerged as the first high and low state.

The growth of production and sales declined, and the downward pressure increased

In 2012, the overall progress of the machine tool industry showed a steady trend. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the highest growth rate in various small industries is the foundry machinery industry, which represents a year-on-year increase of 24.9%; the growth rate of abrasives and machine tool accessories is the next highest, at 18.8% and 16.5%; respectively; .

From the statistics of new orders from companies (parts), the downward pressure on the operation trend is still very high. As of December 2012, new orders have been negative for 19 consecutive months. The annual orders in hand have also been negative year-on-year, and the market situation remains grim.

Rapid changes in demand and structural problems

In 2012, the demand structure of the machine tool market changed rapidly, placing higher requirements on manufacturers. Mainly reflected in two aspects: First, the level of product technology upgrade; Second, the user's comprehensive requirements for manufacturers to upgrade.

In the face of rapidly changing markets, enterprises with good software and hardware levels have fully demonstrated their advantages and are still able to buck the trend. Conversely, for the entire industry, problems such as the conflict between industry and product structure and market demand have become more prominent. First, the competitiveness of medium and high-end products is weak. Imports of machine tools are still at a high level, and the average price of a single unit has increased by 8% year-on-year. The second is the imbalance between the production capacity structure and the market demand structure. The contradiction between the low-level production capacity structure and the higher demand structure becomes more prominent. Third, the industrial chain is incomplete. Re-hosting and light components have always been the weakness of the industry chain of the machine tool industry, which has seriously hindered the process of the machine tool industry from becoming stronger and stronger.

Import high operation, gold cutting machine import pressure increase

In 2012, the import value of China's machine tool products was high. The gold-cutting machine tool is the absolute main force in all kinds of imported machine tools, with a year-on-year increase of 6.03%; the import of forming machine tools, numerical control devices, cutting tools, and components are all negative year-on-year; the machining centers, grinders, special processing machine tools, and lathes are all in various types. Metalworking machine tools import the top four.

From January to December, among the sources of imported CNC lathes on the mainland, the number of Taiwanese regions in China ranks first and the amount ranks second. Its average unit price is 55% of the average unit price of imported CNC lathes in mainland China. In 2011, China's imports of metal processing machines from Japan increased by 4.1%, ranking first in China's imports of metal processing machine tools, accounting for 41.0% of China's total imports of metal processing machine tools. Japan, Germany, China Taiwan, and South Korea together accounted for 78.5% of China's total imports of metal processing machine tools.

Worries about exports, South Asian concern

The lack of demand in the domestic market has led more companies to shift their business focus to the international market. The recovery of equipment demand in the European and American markets, its return to the industrial policy of equipment manufacturing, and easement of employment pressure have become the factors that have driven China's machine tool exports.

In 2012, the top three export value of China's machine tool products were: cutting tools, gold-cutting machines and abrasives. Among the eight categories of products, the fastest growing exports were foundry and forming machine tools, which increased by 18.3% and 16.9% respectively year-on-year; the number of CNC machines, woodworking machine tools, and abrasives exhibited negative growth.

From the data, it can be seen that although the export of China's machine tool industry has maintained a certain growth rate, but the trend is clearly in the down channel, it is difficult to make optimistic estimates for 2013 exports.

In 2012, China’s export market for metal-working machine tools exports 61.7%, 25.8%, and 10.1% to Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, respectively, which is in line with the recent trend of shifting some labor-intensive industries to neighboring countries. It is also consistent with the establishment of the ASEAN Free Trade Area. The top 10 exports in the year are sorted as follows: United States, India, Japan, Germany, Russian Federation, Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, Hong Kong, China, Vietnam.

According to the nature of the export enterprises of machine tool products, private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises are the main force in the export of machine tool products. The export of state-owned enterprises' machine tool products has shown a downward trend.

2013 industry outlook

The economic trend of the industry has basically reached a stable bottom, and there is no possibility of continued deep decline. Although the economic operation situation in 2012 was complicated and severe, the national economic development stabilized and recovered under the national macro-control, which laid a good foundation for the economic development in 2013. .

Market demand has improved

In 2012, the economic situation in the country was slow, stable, and stable. Investment in fixed assets maintained a relatively high growth rate. The entire society's electricity generation and electricity consumption continue to increase. The PMI indicator has stood above the Yurong line for three consecutive months.

The country pays more attention to expanding domestic demand

The economic work conference and the spirit of the party's "eighteenth session" have both made the expansion of domestic demand one of the priorities of the next economic work.

In 2013, investment in fixed assets will grow steadily. 2013 is an important year for the implementation of the 12th Five-Year Plan, and a number of major projects will be accelerated and follow-up.

The in-depth promotion of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization will provide market space for expanding domestic demand and developing the real economy. The westward shift of industries will increase the investment in fixed assets.

In 2013, China’s economic development has many favorable conditions and positive factors. The triumphant victory of the party's "eighteenth party" will accelerate innovation-driven, structural adjustment, and changes in the mode of development, and will continue to enhance the coordination and sustainability of economic development.

In terms of the machine tool industry, the growth rate may fluctuate due to the relatively high base in the same period of 2012, but the fundamentals are generally positive and the depth of decline is unlikely.

Recognize the overall situation of the industry, the market outlook is not optimistic

Although the macroeconomic development situation has a favorable side, the international economic situation in 2013 remains complex. China's economy will transition from high-speed growth to moderate and steady growth. The overall situation is in phased adjustment. The market prospect of the machine tool industry is still not optimistic.

The investment in fixed assets investment in the machine tool industry is still insufficient. The real estate control policy affects the recovery of the machinery industry and even the machine tool industry. The equipment manufacturing industry and related industries, which are closely related to the machine tool industry, are still not strong enough. The investment intention of equipment manufacturing industry weakened.

Slow progress in structural adjustment and business difficulties

The phenomenon of enterprise fund occupation is prominent. Social capital is tight and corporate accounts receivable increase, seriously affecting normal operations.

The industrial structure of the machine tool industry is irrational, and the production capacity of low-end products is excessive, leading to increased inventory and social inventory. De-stocking and capacity reduction will lead to economic indicators such as the total industrial output value of the machine tool industry, and will show a state of low or negative growth in a certain period of time.

Uncertainties in the growth of external demand still exist

The global economic recovery remains fragile. At the end of 2012, the world economic situation has improved, but the European debt crisis and other factors may cause the global economy to fall into a recession again.

In recent years, the competitive advantage of exports of traditional industrial products has been weakened, and the cost of labor in China has risen rapidly. Compared with Southeast Asian countries, the high labor cost in China has led to the recent shift in labor-intensive industries to neighboring countries. This indicates that for a period of time in the future, China's export situation will remain severe, and uncertain factors will remain.

2013 Machine Tool Industry Trend Forecast

Based on the above analysis, the trend of the machine tool industry in 2013 is as follows:

The whole industry of machine tool may have the trend of low first and then high
The analysis is as follows: First, the industry index base is relatively high at the beginning of 2012; Second, since 2012, it has risen month by month since September and will enter the adjustment period; Third, the market's digestion period for inventory; Fourth, it is the seasonal factor. This is the main reason for "low first." Because the fundamentals of the macro economy are still good, it is expected that after a period of decline, the economy of the machine tool industry will slowly pick up.

Second, the output value forecast

It is estimated that in 2013, the gross industrial output value of the machine tool industry will maintain a growth rate of around 10%.

2013 is a year full of challenges and opportunities. In the new year, industry companies must clearly understand that China’s economy will not re-emerge in the rapid development of previous years and must face the medium-speed or even low-speed economic development of the industry; at the same time, we must make full use of various Resources, give full play to subjective initiative, adjust product structure, change development mode, improve core competitiveness of enterprises in an all-round way, achieve a fundamental breakthrough from “can do” to “do a good job”, compete with world-leading companies and brand products, and win more The market share of high-end products.

Foreign companies increasingly value the increasingly fierce competition in the mid-end machine tool market

“The domestic market is dominated by the low-end machine tool market. The high-end market is dominated by European, US and Japanese companies. At least 95% of high-end products rely on imports, while the mid-range market has become the most competitive position.” March 26, China Machine Tool Industry Chen Huiren, the deputy secretary-general of the association, said when talking about the market situation.

Domestic machine tool companies have climbed from low to mid-end, and the high-end foreign companies have increasingly attached importance to this market. There have been news reports that foreign companies have invested in setting up new plants in the country. Their frontiers are undoubtedly mid-range. market. At the same time, the competitiveness of the machine tool companies in Korea and Taiwan in the mid-range market is not to be underestimated.

Machine Tool Industry: Downward Bottom Line Growth Slows Down This Year

“In 2012, China’s machine tool industry continued the downward trend that began in the second half of 2011. The growth rate continued to decline slowly. The domestic market was in a slump and reached the bottom in September.” A few days ago, Wu Berlin, executive vice president of the China Machine Tool & Tooling Industry Association, was talking And when the industry is running. "From the statistics for January and February this year, this year is still continuing the downturn."

In January, China's machine tool trade index was released, and the lathe ranks first. From the index of China's machine tool products trade in late January 2013, it can be seen that the 25% market share of the lathe is ranked first in the machine tool list, and the machine tool is equipped with accessories. The difference is 4 percentage points behind. The market share of CNC machine tools, grinding machines, and drilling machines is quite similar, with 20%, 18%, and 16% of market share followed.