Is the U.S. Manufacturing Industry Recession or Recovery?

The 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index released jointly by Deloitte's global consumer and industrial products industry and the American Competitiveness Commission reported that China ranks first in the national manufacturing competitiveness index in 2016. However, the report predicts that in the next five years, the United States is expected to surpass China as the most competitive manufacturing country in the world. By then, China will be ranked second.

The competition between the United States and China in the manufacturing sector has always been the most interesting research topic for global think tanks. However, aside from the competitive thinking, there are still some basic issues that are worth exploring. For example, what is the status quo of US manufacturing? Is U.S. manufacturing in recession or revival?

Behind the signs of the so-called "recession" is the continued growth of U.S. manufacturing output and efficiency.

Since the beginning of the new century, the number of U.S. manufacturing jobs has fallen by more than 30%. In developed countries, it is only stronger than U.K. and ranks second to last, surpassing the drop in manufacturing jobs during the Great Depression of the 1930s. In the early 1950s, the added value of the U.S. manufacturing industry accounted for nearly 40% of the world's total, fell to 30% in 2002, and further dropped to 17.4% in 2012. In 2010, China’s share of global manufacturing reached 19.8%, exceeding the US’s 19.4%. As a result, the throne of the largest U.S. manufacturing nation has changed hands for more than a century, and it has also raised concerns about the decline of U.S. manufacturing.

However, behind the so-called signs of “recession,” US manufacturing continues to increase output and efficiency. Even after the public generally believed that the US manufacturing industry was in recession and that China's manufacturing industry had risen in 2000, the growth rate of US manufacturing was higher than that of the traditional manufacturing powers Japan and Germany. The productivity of the manufacturing industry in the United States has increased by 41% since 2000, which is much faster than the traditional manufacturing giants such as Canada, Germany, France, and Japan. From 2007 to 2009, 34.6% of foreign direct investment entered the manufacturing sector. High-tech and capital-intensive manufactured exports were the biggest contributors to U.S. export growth. More importantly, the United States occupies high value-added industries and links in the industry chain. A manufacturing analysis released by Booz & Company in 2011 included a US manufacturing industry competitiveness analysis chart showing that the United States still occupies high value-added and high-tech intensive chemical, aerospace, mechanical, medical, and semiconductor industries. As a global leader, the weak manufacturing industry is only in the fields of textiles, clothing, home appliances, furniture, and computer equipment. The United States is the master and leader of the manufacturing value chain.

After the financial crisis, the United States put forward the "return of manufacturing industry" and also triggered a global review of the US manufacturing industry. Under the promotion of a series of manufacturing strategies and policies of the Obama administration, manufacturing has become an important support for the recovery of the United States. U.S. exports of manufactured goods increased by 47% between 2009 and 2012, and exports have set a new record. In 2014, a study by the International Monetary Fund found through a statistical analysis that factors such as the competitiveness of the U.S. dollar exchange rate, the cheap energy brought about by the shale gas revolution, and the shrinking labor costs in emerging countries have driven the U.S. manufacturing industry. The recovery.

U.S. Actively Promotes Manufacturing Rejuvenation "Winning in the Future"

Starting from industrialization, the proportion of service industries in the United States is higher than that of manufacturing industries. For example, in 1890, the proportion of service industries in the United States was 38%, and the proportion of manufacturing industries was 24%. Until the 1960s, the proportion of U.S. manufacturing industry continued to rise. After that, it began to decline and entered the stage of high-income post-industrialization. The current proportion of manufacturing industry has dropped to about 12%. However, the proportion of the manufacturing industry is not as good as that of the service industry, and the fluctuation of the proportion of the manufacturing industry itself does not change the United States’ leadership in relying on innovation to support the world's manufacturing industry.

Starting from the rise of the weak colonies, replacing the United Kingdom as a manufacturing powerhouse, and leading the global manufacturing leadership after World War II, manufacturing is the leader of the US economy. From the 1970s to the 1980s, facing Japan and Germany’s competition challenges in the fields of steel and automobiles, and particularly concerns about the international trade deficit, it caused the domestic concern about the recession in manufacturing and promoted manufacturing revival. Driven by the information technology revolution, in the 1990s, the United States once again regained its position as a world leader in manufacturing. This time, in the face of the fact that China’s manufacturing industry exceeds the challenges of the United States, the recession in manufacturing under the sense of urgency calls for a resurgence, and the United States has actively promoted the manufacturing renaissance “winning in the future”.

U.S. Concerns about Manufacturing Status Contain Multiple Factors

First, in the face of an aging population, a widening gap between the rich and the poor, a low labor participation rate, and a sustained trade deficit, it is necessary to shape the advanced manufacturing industry as a new economic growth point. The second is that manufacturing has a multiplier effect. Research by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce shows that for every US dollar added value of manufacturing, it will bring a value of US$1.4 to other sectors. If the manufacturing industry drives growth while reducing its price relative to the service industry, it will bring about more service industry growth. Former U.S. National Economic Committee director Jean Summer pointed out that every one manufacturing job will lead to the employment of the other 1.6 jobs, and every one advanced manufacturing job will lead to the employment of five other jobs. Third, the role of manufacturing in innovation. In the United States, manufacturing accounts for more than two-thirds of the private-sector R&D. About 70% of national R&D personnel are engaged in manufacturing-related work.

U.S. Active Manufacturing Layout

The United States actively promotes the renaissance of the manufacturing industry not only for the economic recovery after the financial crisis, but for the United States to reshape the strategic leadership of the manufacturing industry. From the implementation process, a series of innovation strategies and policies in key areas have promoted the revival of the manufacturing industry. From a deeper perspective, behind these innovation strategies, the United States has seized the opportunity of a new industrial revolution with the deep integration of industrialization and informatization, and has begun to explore the division of labor in replacing the smile curve industry with the division of network platform industries, and has changed from a service link control to a network platform control. Restructuring of the industrial division regains control of the dominant position of the industrial chain.

After the financial crisis, the United States' reflection on manufacturing was, on the surface, rooted in issues of growth, exports, and employment. The deeper level was the concern for the weakening of the original US-dominated pattern of industrial division of labor. Separation of manufacturing and service links, and the service link to dominate the manufacturing curve of the smiling curve industry division of labor model, is the United States to serve the power of the world to lead the global manufacturing pattern of the core support. However, after the financial crisis, this model began to reveal problems: First, the upgrading of technological capabilities and industrial upgrading in emerging countries, the rapid weakening of the control of service links; Second, the development trend of new industrial revolutions such as smart manufacturing and personalized customization, began to form A new production organization method in which manufacturing and service links are located in the same area. Under this background, relying on its own advantages in information network technology, the United States has begun to actively explore the network platform-based industrial division of labor in the integration of manufacturing and services, relying on the integration of upstream and downstream industrial chains and horizontal industry links through network platforms, and controlling and leading through the Internet platform. The industry chain promotes the transition from service link control to network platform control. For example, in the mobile phone industry, after Apple and Google successively released iOS and Android, the United States relied on an operating platform to integrate the upstream and downstream industry chains. The entire smart phone industry was rapidly transformed into a U.S.-centered enterprise, and U.S. companies learned the most lucrative link in the value chain. , and arrange the collaboration of the entire industry chain in a way that best suits their business interests.

U.S. Manufacturing Reflow: Leading an Intelligent Production Approach to Meet Customization Needs, Integration of Manufacturing and Services

Today, the industrial Internet has become an important direction for the United States to restructure the industrial division of labor. General Electric (GE), the proponent of Industrial Internet in the United States, introduced Predix, a smart machine operating system, and Predictivity, an industrial application platform (equivalent to iOS and Android in the manufacturing industry). Through this platform, vertical and horizontal integration of affiliated companies relies on the platform. Remote monitoring, remote control, and remote maintenance of machinery and equipment, establishing the influence and control of the industrial chain in the network service of the whole life cycle and the entire industry chain. The future of the manufacturing industry will be like today's consumer goods sector, who owns the online platform who controls the industry chain.

Cross-sectoral interaction and cooperation promote the formation of a network platform-based industry division of labor. This mainly presents several types of practices: First, manufacturing companies cooperate with communications and information technology companies to promote the development of industrial Internet. GE collaborated with Intel to develop smart machine control chips, collaborated with Cisco on industrial networking equipment, and partnered with Accenture to enhance industrial big data analytics capabilities. Second, Internet companies quickly entered the manufacturing sector. For example, Google has taken the lead in the field of driverless cars. Amazon first created the e-reader Kindle, and is now perfecting multi-axis UAVs for delivery. The third is the improvement of the status of technological innovation in New York, highlighting the integration of service industry and manufacturing innovation. New York has always been the financial center, media center, and art center of the world and the United States. But now, New York City is taking Silicon Alley's status, and with its unique financial, industry, talent, and infrastructure advantages, it has emerged as a technology center on the East Coast of the United States.

Fundamentally speaking, the return of the manufacturing industry in the United States is an important manifestation of the restructuring of the industrial division of labor. Some studies believe that the return of manufacturing in the United States is an important trend and it is expected that there will be considerable growth. When President Obama issued the 2015 State of the Union address, he also stressed the concern about the return of manufacturing. In short, the return of the U.S. manufacturing industry is not just the return of the U.S. energy costs, logistics costs, and labor productivity. It is also a new mode of industrial division of labor. It is an intelligent production method that meets the needs of individual customization. The new production organization method integrated with the service layout is to cultivate the industry foundation for the construction of the network platform-based industrial division of labor.

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